The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

Mission statement: “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal”. Increased economic, transportation and research activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for sustained and improved availability of predictive weather and climate information to support decision-making. However, partly as a result of a strong emphasis of previous international efforts on lower and middle latitudes, many gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision making in the Arctic, Antarctic and possibly the middle latitudes as well. In order to advance polar prediction capabilities, the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) has been established as one of three THORPEX (THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment) legacy activities. The aim of PPP, a ten year endeavour (2013-2022), is to promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on hourly to seasonal time scales. In order to achieve its goals, PPP will enhance international and interdisciplinary collaboration through the development of strong linkages with related initiatives; strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational forecasting centres; promote interactions and communication between research and stakeholders; and foster education and outreach. Flagship research activities of PPP include sea ice prediction, polar-lower latitude linkages and the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) - an intensive observational, coupled modelling, service-oriented research and educational effort in the period mid-2017 to mid-2019

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities

The Year of Polar Prediction

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has the mission to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user- engagement and education activities. The YOPP Core Phase will be from mid-2017 to mid-2019, flanked by a Preparation Phase and a Consolidation Phase. YOPP is a key component of the World Meteorological Organization – World Weather Research Programme (WMO-WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (better coverage, higher-quality observations); 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes; 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled (and uncoupled) models used for prediction; 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data; 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to seasons; 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes and assess skill of models representing these linkages; 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters; 8. Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services; 9. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. The PPP Steering Group provides endorsement for projects that contribute to YOPP to enhance coordination, visibility, communication, and networking. This White Paper is based largely on the much more comprehensive YOPP Implementation Plan (WWRP/PPP No. 3 – 2014), but has an emphasis on Arctic observations

WWRP Polar Prediction Project Implementation Plan for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is planned for mid-2017 to mid-2019, centred on 2018. Its goal is to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities. With a focus on time scales from hours to a season, YOPP is a major initiative of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP is being planned and coordinated by the PPP Steering Group together with representatives from partners and other initiatives, including the World Climate Research Programme’s Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (enhanced coverage, higher-quality observations). 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes. 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in (un)coupled models used for prediction. 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data. 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from hours to a season. 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes, assess skill of models representing these linkages, and determine the impact of improved polar prediction on forecast skill in lower latitudes. 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user- relevant parameters. 8. Identify various stakeholders and establish their decisionmaking needs with respect to weather, climate, ice, and related environmental services. 9. Assess the costs and benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of users and services. 10. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. YOPP is implemented in three distinct phases. During the YOPP Preparation Phase (2013 through to mid-2017) this Implementation Plan was developed, which includes key outcomes of consultations with partners at the YOPP Summit in July 2015. Plans will be further developed and refined through focused international workshops. There will be engagement with stakeholders and arrangement of funding, coordination of observations and modelling activities, and preparatory research. During the YOPP Core Phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019), four elements will be staged: intensive observing periods for both hemispheres, a complementary intensive modelling and prediction period, a period of enhanced monitoring of forecast use in decisionmaking including verification, and a special educational effort. Finally, during the YOPP Consolidation Phase (mid-2019 to 2022) the legacy of data, science and publications will be organized. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group provides endorsement throughout the YOPP phases for projects that contribute to YOPP. This process facilitates coordination and enhances visibility, communication, and networking

The Polar Prediction Project

Scientific and public awareness of the importance of the polar regions in the global weather and climate system is increasing. The popular use of the term “polar vortex” in the United States of America earlier this year is just one example of increased interest in rapid climate changes at high latitudes. The WMO annual reports on summer Arctic ice cover catch worldwide media attention every year. There is a high level of public interest – especially amongst youth – about how these factors might affect the weather and climate in the rest of the world. The expansion of human activities into the polar regions is also increasing the demand for more information and better predictions

The educational program of the Earth System Science Research School (ESSReS)

The Earth System Science Research School (ESSReS) is an international and interdisciplinary research school for 23 PhD students at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and their partner universities: University of Bremen and Jacobs University Bremen. ESSReS combines observations, modelling, and data analysis in order to decipher the Earth’s complex climate system. Structured training, international exchange and supervision support interdisciplinary research at an early stage of the scientific career

Regionale Machtstrukturen und die Transformation in Russland Die Dynamik institutioneller Veraenderungen im Vergleich

Vom Ende der achtziger bis in die Mitte der neunziger Jahre unterlagen die regionalen Organe der Staatsgewalt in Russland einschneidenden Veraenderungen. Diese Veraenderungen, sowohl auf normativ-rechtlicher als auch auf praktischer Ebene, waren eine Folge der gesamtrussischen politischen Reformen, sie wiesen jedoch regionale Unterschiede auf. Der einsetzende Dezentralisierungsprozess in der Verwaltung, der mit dem Zusammenbruch bzw. einer Schwaechung der 'vertikalen' Machtstrukturen einherging, und die Umverteilung von finanziellen Mitteln und Eigentum zugunsten der Regionen trugen ebenso zum Anstieg der Bedeutung und des Status der regionalen Machtstrukturen bei. Fuer die Untersuchung von Beziehungen dieser Strukturen untereinander und die Herausarbeitung der verschiedenen Foerderalisierungs-, Demokratisierungs- und Dezentralisierungseffekte in den Regionen Russlands wird ein zweidimensionale Modell eingesetzt. Im Rahmen dieses Modells kann das Problem der Gewaltenteilung in der Region in politischer Hinsicht in zwei Schluesselfragen zusammengefasst werden: (1) Wer kontrolliert die Zusammensetzung bzw. Einsetzung des Kabinetts, des Parlaments oder des Oberhauptes und inwieweit? (2) Ist eine Koexistenz von Kabinett und Parlament in Faellen gegenseitigen Misstrauens moeglich? (pre)SIGLEAvailable from UuStB Koeln(38)-990106257 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman